New UNEP report. The 1.5C is slipping away. What now?

The latest UNEP report is serious news. But it is not a reason to give in to climate doom.

The headlines following the release of the UN Environment Programme’s latest report have been alarming: the world is likely to cross 1.5°C of global warming in the coming years, with around 1.8°C now representing the most optimistic temperature peak in the scenarios assessed.

That should concern us. 1.5°C is not just a number. Every additional fraction of a degree increases the risks of extreme heat, drought, flooding, ecosystem loss and irreversible changes to our climate system. For millions of people - particularly in the most vulnerable communities - higher warming will mean greater threats to health, food and water security, homes and livelihoods.

But there is an important difference between recognising how serious this moment is and concluding that the future is already decided.

The UNEP report does not say that exceeding 1.5°C means the end of meaningful climate action. Instead, it calls for an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway: limiting how far temperatures rise above 1.5°C, keeping them there for as little time as possible, and eventually bringing them back down. That means every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions avoided today still matters.

And there are reasons not to confuse urgency with hopelessness. Renewable energy is expanding rapidly, electric vehicles are becoming increasingly widespread, and countries are beginning to bend the curve of fossil fuel demand and emissions. Progress is uneven and far too slow - but it is real.

What the report tells us is that we have less room for delay than ever.

We need rapid emissions cuts alongside serious investment in adaptation: resilient cities, protected ecosystems, stronger food and water systems, and communities equipped to face a hotter world.

The consequences of crossing 1.5°C will be severe. But there is no single temperature at which everything is suddenly lost. Every fraction of a degree we prevent still means lives, ecosystems and livelihoods protected.

The right response to this report is neither complacency nor despair. It is urgency and action.

Ahead of COP31, the climate negotiations summit coming up in November this year, we can help turn that urgency into political pressure. Join Climate Reality in calling on governments to keep fossil fuel lobbyists out of their COP31 negotiation teams, so that those with a direct interest in prolonging fossil fuel dependence do not shape the decisions needed to move beyond it. You can also send a COP31 postcard to world leaders, adding your voice to the call for stronger climate action. If the latest science tells us that every fraction of a degree matters, so does every opportunity we have to demand the action needed to limit warming.